OIL VOLATILITY? TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT

Crude oil futures entered a bear market last year, which came after a multi-year trading range placed following the 2008 economic downfall. While many investors sustained hefty losses, many currency traders took advantage of it, specifically the tight correlation between energy futures and currency pairs reacting to the industry’s high volatility.

Speaking of currencies, take a look at the two currencies to profit from oil volatility: the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar.

Canadian Dollar

Canadian forex crosses exhibit tight ties with crude oil contracts. The USD/CAD pair is almost perfect for oil gyrations since crude is computed in US dollars. Not surprising though as Canada is rich in energy reserves, influencing its foreign trade balances and gross domestic product.

Since the loonie is the denominator in the cross, the pair generates an inverse correlation. So traders, wait for the pair to surge when oil is selling off and the opposite way. This instance tends to alleviate when precious and industrial metals are forcefully moving than oil as the country’s massive source mostly comes from mining.

The US Oil Fund, as well as the USD/CAD pair, showed a firm reverse price action between the 2008-2009 bear market and the third quarter of this year. In 2009, the cross topped out when crude flattened a bottom and got into a two-year uptrend. In exchange, the pair plunged in an inverse two-year downfall.

Between the 2011 reversals and the 2014 breakaway trends, the correlation eased. But in 2014, its uptrend soars when oil recorded a new downtrend. It broke multi-year support and headed into a test of the trough logged in the previous decade.

Australian Dollar

The AUD/USD pair has high correlation, too. Even though Australia has only 0.3% of the world’s crude reserves, it has massive copper, gold, iron ore, and nickel reserves. Also, electronic trading and new derivatives have tightened the pair’s relationships since commodity baskets can be purchased or sold as risk-on or risk-off hedges in response to changing sentiment in the bond and equity markets.

Oil and this currency pair bottomed out altogether in 2009 and got into the same uptrends extending into historic 2011 troughs. The correlation subsides between the 2011 and 2014, but the instruments that follow similar trajectories broke down in the middle of last year. The AUD/USD lost approximately 25%, while oil slumped to half.